For the first half of the season, Michael Penix might as well have been in the NFL’s version of a witness protection program. This is hard to do, especially if you’re the #1 draft pick of a team that’s decided to do a QB overhaul. The decision to create this scenario was controversial, and the fact that it worked to near-perfection feels borderline miraculous.
Until now. Kirk Cousins has struggled mightily of late, but it’s the way he’s struggling that’s most concerning. It’s put Atlanta in a very difficult situation with their two quarterbacks, and the fate of the franchise for this season and beyond rests on whatever call they make going forward. It’s also put both Cousins and Penix in a very dicey situation, and the fate of the Falcons’ season rests on what they decide to do.
The Kirk Cousins conundrum
When Kirk Cousins is playing well, he looks like a top five quarterback, which is why NFL teams continue to give him outrageously expensive contracts. The Falcons are the latest team to take the bait on Cousins, and now they’re paying the price, both literally and figuratively.
Like every other quarterback, Cousins has stretches where he’s not good. They’ve made him a .500 quarterback for most of his career, but this time around looks and feels different. Cousins is coming off an Achilles tear at the age of 36, and suddenly he looks like he can barely move at all. He’s always been a statue in the pocket, but Achilles injuries are notorious for compromising aging quarterbacks (see also: Aaron Rodgers).
The Falcons knew something like this could happen, but their Kirk Cousins moment has arrived way ahead of schedule. He’s thrown six picks in his last three games without a TD pass to counter them, and that’s bad news for a team like Atlanta. Their margin of error has turned into a sliver, which means Michael Penix could be next up.
Going with Michael Penix comes with all kinds of QB headaches
When Michael Penix has been visible, he’s shown that he should be able to handle the job. His preseason performances were impressive, but since then his job has been mostly to come in and take a knee when the margin of victory has been large enough.
But Cousins’ six picks with no TD passes speaks for itself, performance-wise, and now it looks like Atlanta has to make a move. It’s not fair to either quarterback, really, but the concept of fairness in the NFL is mostly an illusion.
It would be nice if Penix had the chance to ramp up if he does become the starter, but that’s not going to happen. The Falcons are hanging on by their fingernails in the mediocre NFC South, and that’s part of the reason why the risk factor is so high with Penix.
There’s more to it than that, though. Cousins is in the first year of a $180 million deal, so his cap numbers are horrific if they do decide to make a permanent change. There’s an out in 2026 that comes with a monster cap hit, but the bottom line is that Cousins is too expensive to be a backup and too old and immobile to deal.
It’s a dreadful situation to be stuck in, and there’s no clear solution. Atlanta has hypothetical cupcake games against the Raiders, Giants and Panthers coming up, but they also visit Minnesota on Sunday and have another road tilt in Washington that will doubtless have all kinds of playoff implications. It’s a huge decision for coach Rahim Morris to have to make, and it comes with ramifications that will also extend well beyond this year.