At the start of the NFL season, Bo Nix was The QB Least Likely to Make It. Selected 12th by the Denver Broncos, Nix was the first-round quarterback whose draft position was questioned the most and the hardest.
Heading down the homestretch, though, Nix actually has a real chance to nudge out Jayden Daniels of Washington for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Some of this is about Nix’s unique combination of talent, athleticism and maturity, but most of it is really about Sean Payton. He’s restored his reputation as a quarterback whisperer, and the key to his success is that he’s taken a very different approach to drafting and developing Nix
Bad Bo by the numbers
If you try to break down Bo Nix’s success using the numbers, you’ll come away at least somewhat mystified by Denver's 7-5 record. He’s had some truly dreadful games, the worst of which was a road game against the Jets in which Denver somehow won despite the fact that Nix passed for just 60 yards passing.
There are some other bad ones, and that includes the cumulative numbers as well. Denver’s offense is 24th in average yards per passing play with just 6.4, which is 24th best in the league. They’ve also had the sixth-most possessions in which the offense didn’t get a first down, which means they’re hanging their defense out to dry on a regular basis.
Drilling down into the game logs starts to reveal a different story, however. Nix opened the season with two of his worst performances as the Broncos lost to the Seahawks, then the Steelers. The Denver quarterback threw a pair of picks in both of those losses, which led to whispers that Payton had lost his fastball, and maybe the Broncos had made a mistake in allowing him to overdraft Nix.
The one number that really matters with Bo Nix
But Nix and Payton seem to have found something in his last five games. Nix has thrown for over 200 yards in all of them, and he even broke the 300-yard mark when the Broncos routed Atlanta, 38-6. Nix also threw for 11 touchdowns in that stretch.
But the biggest number in that sequence is also the smallest. Nix has thrown just one pick during that stretch, which gives him 16 TDs against just six picks for the season. That’s the kind of ratio that can vault a team into the playoff chase, especially since Denver’s defense has suddenly rediscovered its mojo.
Nix has also had some fumble luck throughout the year. He’s coughed up the ball six times, which isn’t awful, especially for a rookie QB who’s still working to get the game to slow down. But none of those fumbles has resulted in a turnover, and it’s unlikely that luck will continue to hold.
Bo Nix and the playoff question
Whether this will translate into a playoff berth is a different question entirely. The Broncos have a pair of very winnable home games coming up against the Browns and Colts, and Denver needs to win both those games to strengthen their playoff position for the final run.
The schedule turns tougher after that, with a road game against the Chargers and another after that against the Bengals. Denver hosts Kansas City in their season finale, and the Broncos will need to win at least one of those games to escape from the scrum of .500 teams that always happens at this time of year.
Bo Nix won’t excel in all of those games, of course. He’ll likely have one or two duds as the stakes continue to rise, and it will be up to Payton to keep his rookie quarterback on track by keeping the turnover count down. It won’t be easy, but the fact that Denver is even in this position to begin with is truly remarkable.