For several years now, we’ve been blinded by the brilliance of Joel Embiid’s performance in his prime. He’s one of the most unique big men to play the game in decades, and in many ways the old-school aspects of Embiid’s game harkens back to a different era. From brutal post attacks to step-back threes and incredibly athletic blocks, Embiid has authored some spectacular plays and amazing stats, but no titles.
But the ending to his story was always predictable. Go back to his days at Kansas and his first few seasons with the 76ers, and the writing was on the wall. The list of his early injuries is both formidable and extensive, to the point where the kind of breakdown he’s experiencing In Philadelphia now was easy to anticipate, even if the growth of Embiid’s enormous ego was somewhat harder to forecast.
Big men with bad wheels don’t last in the NBA
Joel Embiid’s first major injury at Kansas was horrifying. A stress fracture in Embiid’s back took him out of both the Big 12 and NCAA tournaments. That injury helped set the table for the memorable Wiggins/Parker draft in 2014, with Jabari Parker becoming a bust and Andrew Wiggins turning into a journeymen as the 76ers drafted Embiid third.
Developing Embiid became an exercise in patience, to the point where Embiid became the poster rep for The Process, which was shorthand for absolute tanking taken to the ultimate extreme. Embiid broke his right foot, then broke it again, and the simple fact is that big men with bad wheels rarely last in the NBA. His knee injuries started shortly after that, and now that Embiid is 30, he’s basically right at the point of no return when it comes to recovering from his current knee issues.
Embiid’s playing style contributed to the problem
When Embiid was younger and in his prime, he only played with one gear—all out. Which is laudable, but Embiid threw his body around like he had the flexibility of a point guard or a versatile wing, and he showed his addiction to making highlight reel plays early on in his career.
His playing style took a toll, but Embiid mostly shrugged it off. This was due in part to the growth of his ego and personality, which has helped land Philadelphia in the mess the 76ers are in now.
The Add-Another-Star formula hasn’t worked with Joel Embiid
Schematically, it’s difficult going on impossible to build a championship team around Embiid. He’s ball-dominant, and he loves to beat up other bigs in the post, then step back and make threes--partly to humiliate them, but also just to prove he can.
The 76ers have tried a number of approaches to get over the top with Embiid and get him a ring, but nothing has really worked. They’ve tried surrounding him with shooters, but the Philly big doesn’t like sacrificing his numbers, and while he can be an excellent passer when he gets the urge, he’s not willing to do it all the time.
When this didn’t work, Philly took the add-a-star formula, most notably with James Harden. This approach was bound to blow up, and when it did it happened in spectacular fashion. The latest veteran Band-Aid is Paul George, who has knee injuries of his own.
Add in a hamstring injury to emerging guard Tyrese Maxey, and the result is a 3-13 star that has 76ers fans contemplating the possibility that they might have to go through an updated version of The Process.
Philly has also tried the scheme-it-up solution, hiring Nick Nurse to innovate around Embiid, George and Maxey. Nurse will make plenty of noise about what’s possible when he has all three stars together on the floor, but with Embiid and George in their thirties, this scenario won’t last for more than a few games here and there.
Given Embiid’s unique personality and outsized ego, his decline has already been ugly, and it’s going to get a lot worse. He seems more interested in trolling and tracking enemies, real and perceived, than getting in prime shape and showing up for meetings and events on time. The infighting in Philly has already begun.
Contract-wise, the 76ers are on the hook for close to $200 million through the 2028-29 season, and at this point Embiid’s injury history makes him untradeable. There may be a buyout at some point when it becomes obvious that there’s no road back for the Philly big, but until then the only recourse is to sit back and watch this slow-motion implosion of one of the best bigs in recent history.