When the Minnesota Vikings signed Sam Darnold to back up rookie J.J. McCarthy, they figured they were getting a quarterback who could function as a placeholder if necessary. There was definitely nothing in Darnold’s checkered past to suggest he might be anything more than that, and the working theory when McCarthy got hurt was that QB whisperer Kevin O’Connell could elevate Darnold’s play enough to keep the Vikings in playoff contention.
But Darnold has been much more than just a placeholder. So much so, in fact that he’s set himself up for a serious payday, especially since Minnesota hasn’t sent out any strong signals yet that they’re inclined to keep Sam Darnold around.
Riding the latest Sam Darnold roller coaster
The Sam Darnold experience has always had something of a roller-coaster quality to it. When he flashes the talent that made him a high draft pick he looks brilliant, but when things start going downhill, they often get really bad.
This year is no exception. Darnold started the year in a shocking fashion, playing brilliantly as the Vikings raced out to a 5-0 record. Highlights included a route of the Texans in which Darnold threw four touchdown passes without a single interception, and a surprising victory at Lambeau when Darnold went toe-to-toe with Jordan Love.
Then Darnold’s evil twin resurfaced. After a pair of losses, he turned a win against the Colts into a three-turnover adventure, and a very shaky win over Jacksonville included three picks with no TD passes.
Now Darnold is back on a tear. Minnesota has won six straight, and Darnold has thrown seven TD passes without a single turnover in their last two games, the latter of which was an impressive five-TD showing against former Viking starter Kirk Cousins.
The Vikings still don’t seem sold in their quarterback
Despite these performances, the Vikings praise for Darnold has been decidedly muted. Coach Kevin O’Connell refused to call his performance against Cousins a validation for signing Darnold when he easily could have taken a victory lap.
Offensive coordinator Wes Phillips was equally backhanded in his praise of Darnold, stating that the quarterback “has proven he can play in this league.” His comments about Darnold’s future included the phrase “whatever his future ends up being,” so it’s not exactly hard to read the tea leaves going forward.
McCarthy is expected to make a full recovery from knee surgery, and Minnesota seems committed to him going forward. Clearly, they’re not going to take the same path forward with Darnold that they chose with Cousins and pay him big money to just make the playoffs. A Super Bowl run might change that, of course, but that would mean getting past the Lions and Eagles, which is the definition of a tall task.
What will Sam Darnold command on the open market?
Given all that, that's the key question going forward. At the moment Sam Darnold looks like the front runner among the potential free agent quarterbacks in a year with only two options at the top of the draft.
That means someone will likely overpay for Darnold, especially if he can keep his evil twin from resurfacing. The Vikings have a cupcake game at home against the Bears on Monday night, but after that Minnesota’s schedule turns brutal, with a visit to Seattle followed by division games against the Packers and Lions.
But a win on Monday would nail down a 12-win season for the Vikings, and while losses beyond that might hurt Sam Darnold’s value, he’s still going to get paid. And while it might seem like Darnold’s been around forever, he’s still just 27, which means someone’s going to cough up more money than the Falcons spent last year to sign Kirk Cousins.